This Wall Street Journal article poses this interesting question to three expert: Kevin Kuhlman, a manager of legislative affairs at the National Federation of Independent Business, a research and lobbying group for small business; Christine Eibner, an economist at RAND Corp. who has studied the possible effects of the law on health-insurance markets; and David Marini, managing director, strategic advisory services, at Automatic Data Processing Inc.,ADP +0.52% who also has studied the law’s effects.
They speak to the potential for some employers to decrease work hours to avoid the penalty for not offering insurance to all workers, but note that this is not a certainty. Kuhlman notes that employer based insurance had already been declining significantly pre ACA. Their discussion is worth a read. Eibner presents more data to back up her assertions.
Here is a journal article by Arthur Tacchino that covers much of the same topic but really challenges: A new way to think about employer-sponsored health care coverage strategies.